August 2011 Lab Notes
Steven Turvey
NBN Critics Need to Think Big Picture
Let’s take a look at one of IT's most modest, (well, if you must - inaccurate) predictions ever made:
“I think there is a world market for about five computers”.
This quote is attributed to Thomas J Watson who subsequently oversaw the growth, and become president, of IBM. This quote may be nothing more than urban myth - given the difficulty substantiating it, but as far as examples of underestimating something goes, it certainly is a ripper.
There have been some other startling examples of a lack of vision in IT over the past few decades (more at the end of this column). However, the current lack of vision applied to the NBN discussion makes me quite angry.
To be clear, I’m not claiming the actual NBN proposal is the best thing since sliced bread.
(This column is not actually about the NBN at all, but rather the astonishing lack of vision displayed by naysayers concerning high speed broadband.)
Imagine building the Sydney Harbour Bridge or even West Gate in Melbourne to the requirements of the time in which it was built – without looking ahead to the future! Sydney Harbour Bridge was completed in 1931 and featured 8 vehicle and 2 train lanes. There is no way that the traffic at the time warranted so many lanes. Some of the more short-sighted folk back then must surely have lamented the cost of all those extra lanes, yet here we are with the now iconic coat hanger supplemented by an under harbour tunnel, and both can still be reduced to car parks during peak hour. The West Gate Bridge has recently been upgraded so that the emergency lane can be used as a full time traffic lane and it is still a relative youngster having been opened in 1978.
My point is that we must look to the future and consider the needs of the nation, not just our own little patch. We have, for too long, let our country fall behind the world in terms of technology. I agree that currently, we are riding precariously on the back of mining driven stability.
One of the problems we face is that a lot of new, or even proposed, technologies are bandied about as reasons for high speed broad band, but these are simply too removed from Mr and Ms Average, so are easily dismissed as a real and valid driver.
What might be less commonly discussed, is that there are many new technologies being adopted - at a rapid rate - that do affect the average Joe and Mary.
Apple is currently promoting iCloud, and we at the TestLab have been using MobileMe, a precursor to iCloud for some time now. Its calendar, contacts, critical work files and even media such as iTunes files are all mirrored on the iMac and iCloud. There are plenty of ads on TV showing happy families snapping photos that are streamed up into the Cloud for safe keeping.
Movies and streaming providers like Netflix are rapidly driving the nails into the coffin of DVD rental giants. Just look at Blockbuster in Canada which was placed in receivership in May this year. Blockbuster is closing 146 of its least profitable stores in a bid to attract a buyer. Online delivery is so cheap that a physical shop front stocking multiple copies of thousands of movies just can’t compete.
It’s not simply about cost either. I know of families using AppleTV, for example, that spend more per month that they previously did hiring DVDs. Why? Convenience! Are the kids being feral? It’s raining outside? Perhaps you want to just sit down and enjoy a new release? No need to go out at all - just stream the latest release from the comfort of your lounge room.
There are many of us that have the ability to do much of our work from home - let’s face it many of us do not need to physically be at our place of work. Other supervisory issues aside, with a laptop, a high speed connection and a secure VPN business file server, it’s as good as being in the office. Unfortunately, I can vouch that this is not the case for the average home ADSL2 connection. An ADSL2 link can be glacially slow, which will impact productivity.
Any debate about the individual costs of the NBN should probably figure in the potential savings for the thousands and thousands of people who might minimise or adapt their commute to work as a result of the roll out. Undoubtedly it’s complex, the impact, the cost benefit and the value now, as well as in the future can only be estimated. It’s never easy to factor the entire direct and trickledown impact – not to mention the trickle-across and trickle-back up effects.
Certainly, I do not have the answers as to what new industries and technologies will emerge to take advantage of our new high-speed broadband. But, I do have confidence that most of our lives will be enriched by the NBN in one way or another, and many of us will find profit and professional gain in its introduction.
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For those of you that would like to have a few more chuckles here are some real pearlers from the past and more can be found at http://www.2spare.com/item_50221.aspx
This antitrust thing will blow over
– Bill Gates Microsoft
Remote shopping, while entirely feasible will flop
– Time Magazine 1966
Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.
-Popular Mechanics, March 1949
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
-Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC)
But what... is it good for?
- IBM executive Robert Lloyd, speaking in 1968 about the microprocessor